Similarly to the scenario that has played out with almost every big storm system this month, it remains unclear whether enough cold air will be in place in the atmosphere and on the ground when the moisture arrives. That’s why forecasters are uncertain whether New Jersey will end up with snow, rain or mixed precipitation.
While the National Weather Service has not yet issued its official snowfall projections because the storm is more than 72 hours away, some computer guidance models are suggesting New Jersey could get anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of accumulating snow this weekend.
However, the major computer models have been making wild swings during the past 24 hours, some of them hinting at a large snowfall potential in one model run, then minor accumulations in later model runs.
On Tuesday, the European model was projecting as much as 8 inches of snow across parts of New Jersey this weekend, and the American GFS model was projecting virtually no snow in the Garden State.
As of Wednesday morning, both of those models are projecting small snow accumulations, but in different parts of the state. One is hinting at 1 to 2 inches in North Jersey and 3 to 4 inches in South Jersey; the other is projecting 2 to 4 inches in North Jersey and hardly anything in South Jersey and along the coast.
Keep in mind, computer models are not official forecasts. They are among the tools used by meteorologists to analyze storm systems, weather patterns and atmospheric conditions.